Memory read/write speeds along with data transfer rates on USB devices have continued to improve over the years until it has become possible to store full-length movies on the memory stick and actually play them directly from the device.

The iPod Touch and iPhone use flash technologies to replace miniaturized hard drives thus reducing power consumption. In general, an iPod Touch is a very sophisticated memory stick capable (currently) of storing 32 gigabytes of movies, pictures, applications not to mention the operating system the device uses to function.

Truly, flash memory technologies are reaching remarkable densities and performance levels. However this is merely the beginning of the trend.

In the July/September issue of the IBM Journal of Research and Development, several research papers were published discussing a class of memory technologies called Storage Class Memory or (SCM)¹. The development of SCM technologies is an effort by companies like IBM to completely replace the hard disk drive by the year 2020. While, there are many challenges to overcome, mainly related to device longevity, the papers were very optimistic at the prospects of overcoming them. I believe that by 2010 we will start to see the first SCM devices appear which will most likely be used to replace flash technologies in the 1-40 gigabyte ranges. However, by 2015 we should start to see 50-150 gigabyte SCM devices start to appear and the first of the laptops making use of them.

Essentially, when we can finally utilize SCM devices in traditional computers such as laptops, desktops and servers, we will have finally broken away from the largest bottleneck to computing performance that currently exists: the Hard Drive. We will finally realize the first “Instant-On” computers and perceived application performance will skyrocket without any other changes to the computing architectures.

At the same time, as SCM devices start to mature, you will start to see SCM Memory Sticks with capacities of 30 to 50 gigabytes and mean-time-before-failure rates in the tens of years. It is quite possible that by 2020 we could see 1+ Terabyte laptop computers and 500 gigabyte memory sticks (can you imagine a 500+ gigabyte iPod?).

About fifteen years ago, I was fascinated by a Sci-Fi television show called Babylon 5, and while there were many futuristic technologies that seemed to be ubiquitous, none more so then the Memory Crystal (for lack of a better term). These things seemed to have the ability to store vast quantities of data and have the ability to access any portion of it almost instantaneously. I believe we are on the road toward making this technology a reality. While “Blue-Ray” DVD’s are the first truly cheap digital recording medium capable of storing a full-length high-definition movie without compression, I believe that by 2015 some entrepreneurial inventor will marry USB 3.0, SCM and some hardware security technologies make SCM Memory Sticks a reality. This literally could be the end of mechanical recording devices like CD’s or DVD’s as literally you could rent several HD movies by paying a small fee for the use of a special memory stick at the movie rental store (which has proprietary security hardwired to prevent copying or tampering², and also a timer to render the stick inert when the rental time runs out). Imagine taking your rental stick to the movie rental kiosk, plug it in, choose 3 or so movies to rent, pay the kiosk and have them downloaded to your memory stick. At home, you could literally have the playback device be built into your television, or it could be a small HDMI connected play-box device that you insert your stick into.

To be honest, the previous example may not be the best one, considering that greater numbers of people are choosing to download their videos over the Internet or rent them “On Demand” through their cable company, but I think you get the idea.

Regardless, I find a world where there are no more CD’s, DVD’s, or floppy disks (do we even use those anymore?), a fantastic one. Wouldn’t it be great if the future could let us store the universe on a stick?

1. See Storage-class memory: The next storage system technology by R. F. Freitas and W. W. Wilcke
2. For example the IronKey has similar security features.

As an avid gamer myself, I have had quite a bit of exposure to the concept of Guilds. Guilds is a generic term that defines a virtual social network of individuals that come together to enhance the social aspects of the virtual world they are in. Just about every virtual world I have had exposure to has this concept built-in. In fact, the concept of Guilds has been a part of online gaming since the beginning. I can speak from first-hand experience of leading and participating in guilds during the time back in the mid 90’s when I played Meridian 59 rather extensively.

Guilds were something of a necessity since early games like M59 were Player-vs-Player only and the easiest way to survive and advance was to join a social organization so that you could watch each others backs. However, over time, as the concept of Player vs. Environment (PvE) became just as important as PvP game play, Guilds started executing Raids on in-game entities that normally were never supposed to be challenged as a way to enhance their gaming experience. Developers caught on quickly and started adding “Raid” content to challenge the more organized Guilds.

Today, Raiding is often accepted as the next challenge tier after achieving the highest level in the game. Unfortunately many game developers lose sight of the fact that often it is very difficult to bring together enough people to experience the end-game content, and many games therefore lack content that the casual player has access to.

Aside from Guilds being a means to an end with respect to MMOG’s, Guilds often display very interesting social dynamics, depending on their goals and the make up of their population. In a way, the longevity of a Guild in a Virtual World is often a point of pride to gamers, and boasting that a particular Guild that you happen to belong to has survived so many months or years is often seen as another facet of the game itself.

In the article, “The Life and Death of Online Gaming Communities: A Look at Guilds in World of Warcraft,” the authors take a very interesting look at how these social organizations are structured, why they survive or fail, and what kind of guilds are successful. If your interested in reading about it, you can
skip most of the scientific jargon and jump right to the meat of the
discussion which starts around page 7 (or page 845 if you use the
numbering at the bottom of the page).

In my experience, the best Guilds are the casual raiding guilds, but these guilds are also the hardest to maintain. The membership must be of like-mind, and generally tends to be older (often between the ages of 25-40), and this very characteristic derives from the fact that individuals at that age tend to have less free-time on their hands, but also there is a desire to do more in a shorter period of time when events do occur.

On the other hand, according to the article above, the more successful guilds tend to be the hard-core raiding guilds since they tend to be a small number of players that are all very focused on one thing: Raiding. These Guilds really could care less about any other kind of content, and they tend to be very good at functioning as a team. The organization of such Guilds are also very militaristic, and this serves them well by allowing the members to focus on their specializations and performing the strategies set out by the chain-of-command. In this fashion, they are able to achieve their goals quickly and with a sense of satisfaction.

It would be very interesting if a follow-up article were done to discern some real demographics about the people behind the avatars, but I doubt this would be possible.

Guilds are interesting, and if you’ve participated in Virtual Worlds at all (let alone MMOG’s) then you would probably find the research article amusing and perhaps even fascinating. If you haven’t had the opportunity to particpate first-hand, the article is still interesting from a psychological perspective as I’m sure it says something about the human condition and how we would interact if human physical contact is factored out.